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  • Any thoughts on this natural experiment design with fundamentally different audience?

    Hello everyone,

    In a natural experiment, I'm studying the effect of a treatment that was rolled out to one language group (e.g., English-speakers) but not to others (control). I'm using difference-in-differences with propensity score matching on unit-level characteristics.

    My concern is, even after matching on observable unit characteristics, the treatment group has ~2.4x higher baseline DV difference than the control group. This likely reflects audience differences (e.g., the treatment language has a much larger global user base) rather than unit-level differences, or the behavior of the treatment and control groups are inherently different due to cultural differences.

    A few specifics:
    • Units are matched 1:1 on pre-determined characteristics
    • I use unit fixed effects + time fixed effects with clustered SEs
    • Pre-treatment trends appear roughly parallel in log
    My questions are:
    1. Does DiD still identify the causal effect if the level difference is driven by audience composition rather than unit characteristics, assuming parallel trends hold?
    2. Should I be concerned that the control group is internally heterogeneous (6 different languages pooled together)?
    I'd really appreciate any thoughts on this research design.

  • #2
    Parto:
    what did -estat trendplots-, -estat ptrends-, and -estat granger- give you back?
    Kind regards,
    Carlo
    (Stata 19.0)

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