Hi!
I´m working on a thesis on onset of civil war using panel data. While most of my control variables (GDP per capita, population, peace years) are stastically significant, my main independent variables are mostly not, except for food price shocks. Do you have any suggestions for improving the model or increasing the explanatory power of thesee variables (according to the theory they should be significant).
code:
xtreg conflict_onset disputed_election_index leder_dod z_ln_total_deaths z_ln_total_population z_ln_GDP_per_capita food_price_real_lag e_pt_coup_lag z_ln_GDP_per_capita_growth inv_peace v2x_polyarchy_lag i.year, fe
Variables
Variable | Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
conflict_o~t | 8,164 .0249878 .1560972 0 1
disputed_e~x | 7,839 -7.45e-10 .8340335 -1.591862 2.160036
leder_dod | 9,212 .0167173 .1282172 0 1
z_ln_total~s | 5,429 -6.20e-09 1 -1.571417 4.741596
z_ln_total~n | 9,236 3.69e-10 1 -3.127967 3.133524
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
z_ln_GDP_p~a | 9,236 -1.90e-09 1 -2.899817 2.0317
food~eal_lag | 9,273 93.251 16.44187 67.21377 138.0701
e_pt_coup_~g | 9,151 .0215277 .1524872 0 2
z_ln_GDP_p~h | 7,426 6.89e-10 1 -7.232816 3.896336
inv_peace | 9,496 .1821606 .3467801 0 1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
v2x_polyar~g | 9,227 .4266807 .2872424 .007 .923
Results:
Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 3,192
Group variable: gwno Number of groups = 162
R-squared: Obs per group:
Within = 0.0335 min = 1
Between = 0.0387 avg = 19.7
Overall = 0.0062 max = 55
F(67, 2963) = 1.53
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.8510 Prob > F = 0.0037
Thank you!
Sandra
I´m working on a thesis on onset of civil war using panel data. While most of my control variables (GDP per capita, population, peace years) are stastically significant, my main independent variables are mostly not, except for food price shocks. Do you have any suggestions for improving the model or increasing the explanatory power of thesee variables (according to the theory they should be significant).
code:
xtreg conflict_onset disputed_election_index leder_dod z_ln_total_deaths z_ln_total_population z_ln_GDP_per_capita food_price_real_lag e_pt_coup_lag z_ln_GDP_per_capita_growth inv_peace v2x_polyarchy_lag i.year, fe
Variables
Variable | Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
conflict_o~t | 8,164 .0249878 .1560972 0 1
disputed_e~x | 7,839 -7.45e-10 .8340335 -1.591862 2.160036
leder_dod | 9,212 .0167173 .1282172 0 1
z_ln_total~s | 5,429 -6.20e-09 1 -1.571417 4.741596
z_ln_total~n | 9,236 3.69e-10 1 -3.127967 3.133524
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
z_ln_GDP_p~a | 9,236 -1.90e-09 1 -2.899817 2.0317
food~eal_lag | 9,273 93.251 16.44187 67.21377 138.0701
e_pt_coup_~g | 9,151 .0215277 .1524872 0 2
z_ln_GDP_p~h | 7,426 6.89e-10 1 -7.232816 3.896336
inv_peace | 9,496 .1821606 .3467801 0 1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
v2x_polyar~g | 9,227 .4266807 .2872424 .007 .923
Results:
Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 3,192
Group variable: gwno Number of groups = 162
R-squared: Obs per group:
Within = 0.0335 min = 1
Between = 0.0387 avg = 19.7
Overall = 0.0062 max = 55
F(67, 2963) = 1.53
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.8510 Prob > F = 0.0037
| conflict_onset | Coefficient | Std. err. | t | P>|t| | [95% conf. interval] | |
| disputed_election_index | -.0053183 | .0119455 | -0.45 | 0.656 | -.0287407 | .0181041 |
| leder_dod | -.0347662 | .0223004 | -1.56 | 0.119 | -.0784921 | .0089597 |
| z_ln_total_deaths | -.0001766 | .0037739 | -0.05 | 0.963 | -.0075763 | .0072231 |
| z_ln_total_population | .0977481 | .0335138 | 2.92 | 0.004 | .0320354 | .1634608 |
| z_ln_GDP_per_capita | .0213272 | .0085101 | 2.51 | 0.012 | .0046408 | .0380135 |
| food_price_real_lag | .0128425 | .0054108 | 2.37 | 0.018 | .0022333 | .0234518 |
| e_pt_coup_lag | .014516 | .0270241 | 0.54 | 0.591 | -.0384719 | .067504 |
| z_ln_GDP_per_capita_growth | -.0022677 | .0033216 | -0.68 | 0.495 | -.0087806 | .0042451 |
| inv_peace | -.104289 | .0171007 | -6.10 | 0.000 | -.1378194 | -.0707585 |
| v2x_polyarchy_lag | -.0383662 | .0386587 | -0.99 | 0.321 | -.1141669 | .0374345 |
| year | ||||||
| 1963 | -.0029834 | .0444522 | -0.07 | 0.946 | -.0901438 | .0841769 |
| 1964 | -.1164471 | .0627312 | -1.86 | 0.064 | -.2394483 | .0065541 |
| 1965 | -.1137012 | .0763563 | -1.49 | 0.137 | -.2634181 | .0360156 |
| 1966 | -.1255914 | .0763897 | -1.64 | 0.100 | -.2753736 | .0241909 |
| 1967 | -.1028639 | .0645792 | -1.59 | 0.111 | -.2294885 | .0237607 |
| 1968 | -.0752557 | .0544727 | -1.38 | 0.167 | -.1820638 | .0315523 |
| 1969 | .0100853 | .0399413 | 0.25 | 0.801 | -.0682303 | .0884008 |
| 1970 | -.014779 | .0384094 | -0.38 | 0.700 | -.0900908 | .0605329 |
| 1971 | .0544263 | .0375035 | 1.45 | 0.147 | -.0191093 | .127962 |
| 1972 | -.0389418 | .0407334 | -0.96 | 0.339 | -.1188104 | .0409269 |
| 1973 | -.00064 | .0388509 | -0.02 | 0.987 | -.0768176 | .0755376 |
| 1974 | -.2184557 | .1084697 | -2.01 | 0.044 | -.4311392 | -.0057721 |
| 1975 | -.5295297 | .2196248 | -2.41 | 0.016 | -.9601624 | -.098897 |
| 1976 | -.4021842 | .1890427 | -2.13 | 0.033 | -.7728524 | -.0315159 |
| 1977 | -.2036733 | .0877422 | -2.32 | 0.020 | -.3757152 | -.0316314 |
| 1978 | -.0582704 | .0524241 | -1.11 | 0.266 | -.1610618 | .0445209 |
| 1979 | .0117652 | .0336904 | 0.35 | 0.727 | -.0542937 | .0778242 |
| 1980 | .0109281 | .0336811 | 0.32 | 0.746 | -.0551126 | .0769688 |
| 1981 | -.0303249 | .0367464 | -0.83 | 0.409 | -.1023759 | .0417262 |
| 1982 | .0761319 | .0325814 | 2.34 | 0.020 | .0122474 | .1400164 |
| 1983 | .1222691 | .0589195 | 2.08 | 0.038 | .0067418 | .2377964 |
| 1984 | .2340701 | .0686553 | 3.41 | 0.001 | .0994532 | .368687 |
| 1985 | .1054685 | .0420211 | 2.51 | 0.012 | .0230751 | .187862 |
| 1986 | .1747711 | .0798727 | 2.19 | 0.029 | .0181594 | .3313827 |
| 1987 | .3306279 | .1449007 | 2.28 | 0.023 | .0465116 | .6147442 |
| 1988 | .3852219 | .1666338 | 2.31 | 0.021 | .0584921 | .7119517 |
| 1989 | .3732147 | .1450464 | 2.57 | 0.010 | .0888129 | .6576165 |
| 1990 | .332429 | .1228861 | 2.71 | 0.007 | .0914782 | .5733798 |
| 1991 | .2923688 | .1155705 | 2.53 | 0.011 | .0657622 | .5189754 |
| 1992 | .2993054 | .118347 | 2.53 | 0.011 | .0672547 | .5313561 |
| 1993 | .2995918 | .1132808 | 2.64 | 0.008 | .0774747 | .5217089 |
| 1994 | .347457 | .1387539 | 2.50 | 0.012 | .0753933 | .6195207 |
| 1995 | .217139 | .0946375 | 2.29 | 0.022 | .0315772 | .4027009 |
| 1996 | .1960504 | .077406 | 2.53 | 0.011 | .0442755 | .3478254 |
| 1997 | .1598932 | .063291 | 2.53 | 0.012 | .0357945 | .2839919 |
| 1998 | .2055158 | .0833604 | 2.47 | 0.014 | .0420656 | .368966 |
| 1999 | .2479137 | .1013347 | 2.45 | 0.014 | .0492202 | .4466072 |
| 2000 | .3779155 | .1552967 | 2.43 | 0.015 | .0734151 | .6824159 |
| 2001 | .4006379 | .1622591 | 2.47 | 0.014 | .082486 | .7187897 |
| 2002 | .3066162 | .1361491 | 2.25 | 0.024 | .0396599 | .5735726 |
| 2003 | .3316954 | .1450035 | 2.29 | 0.022 | .0473775 | .6160132 |
| 2004 | .3443332 | .1318477 | 2.61 | 0.009 | .085811 | .6028555 |
| 2005 | .2639382 | .1075798 | 2.45 | 0.014 | .0529996 | .4748769 |
| 2006 | .2294455 | .1095035 | 2.10 | 0.036 | .0147349 | .444156 |
| 2007 | .2072453 | .0885911 | 2.34 | 0.019 | .0335391 | .3809516 |
| 2008 | -.0535676 | .0255129 | -2.10 | 0.036 | -.1035923 | -.0035428 |
| 2009 | -.2233261 | .0986595 | -2.26 | 0.024 | -.4167741 | -.029878 |
| 2010 | .0055734 | .0280286 | 0.20 | 0.842 | -.0493842 | .0605309 |
| 2011 | -.1086807 | .0594356 | -1.83 | 0.068 | -.22522 | .0078585 |
| 2012 | -.3020991 | .1209255 | -2.50 | 0.013 | -.5392057 | -.0649925 |
| 2013 | -.1944404 | .0828145 | -2.35 | 0.019 | -.3568202 | -.0320607 |
| 2014 | -.1576051 | .0731557 | -2.15 | 0.031 | -.3010462 | -.014164 |
| 2015 | -.1187245 | .0566931 | -2.09 | 0.036 | -.2298863 | -.0075626 |
| 2016 | .0214926 | .0249807 | 0.86 | 0.390 | -.0274886 | .0704738 |
| 2017 | -.032742 | .024018 | -1.36 | 0.173 | -.0798357 | .0143517 |
| 2018 | -.0567261 | .0312713 | -1.81 | 0.070 | -.1180419 | .0045896 |
| 2019 | .027666 | .0266159 | 1.04 | 0.299 | -.0245216 | .0798536 |
| 2020 | 0 | (omitted) | ||||
| _cons | -1.241057 | .5303056 | -2.34 | 0.019 | -2.280862 | -.2012524 |
Thank you!
Sandra
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