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  • Interpreting margins after stcrreg

    Hello,

    I have am working with an administrative healthcare database and have constructed a competing risk regression to look at risk of having an ED visit within the first 30 days after being hospitalized, accounting for the competing risks of mortality and planned rehospitalization. I would like to compare outcomes at 30 days across a specific binary covariate - biologic sex.

    If I was working in a logistic regression I would typically use the margins command to compare predicted probabilities of ED visits (e.g. any ED visit within 30 days). I am hoping for assistance on how to interpret the margins command after a competing risk regression as there is no clear documentation or examples in the documentation for stcrreg postestimation. I've provided example code below with (covariate details omitted for clarity).

    How does one interpret a "predicted relative subhazard" in this instance? Would the predictive relative subhazard for males (0.48, 0.44-0.53) approximate a predicted probability at 30 days?


    Code:
    stset tte_card, failure(status_card==1)
          
          Survival-time data settings
          
                   Failure event: status_card==1
          Observed time interval: (0, tte_card]
               Exit on or before: failure
          
          --------------------------------------------------------------------------
            1,678,088  total observations
                    0  exclusions
          --------------------------------------------------------------------------
            1,678,088  observations remaining, representing
              890,582  failures in single-record/single-failure data
             32746613  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                          At risk from t =         0
                                               Earliest observed entry t =         0
                                                    Last observed exit t =        31
    
    stcrreg i.sex (other covariates in model omitted for clarity), compete(status_card==2) vce(cluster prvdr_num)
    
                  Failure _d: status_card==1
            Analysis time _t: tte_card
          
          Iteration 0:  Log pseudolikelihood =  -12409010 
          Iteration 1:  Log pseudolikelihood =  -12408413 
          Iteration 2:  Log pseudolikelihood =  -12408413 
          
          Competing-risks regression                        No. of obs      =  1,678,088
                                                            No. of subjects =  1,678,088
          Failure event:   status_c~d == 1                  No. failed      =    890,582
          Competing event: status_c~d == 2                  No. competing   =    206,206
                                                            No. censored    =    581,300
          
                                                            Wald chi2(57)   =   15894.90
          Log pseudolikelihood =  -12408413                 Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
          
                                       (Std. err. adjusted for 5,597 clusters in prvdr_num)
          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
                       _t |        SHR   std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
          ----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sex |
                Female  |   .7362776   .0084726   -26.60   0.000     .7198575    .7530722
    
          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          
    margins sex
          
          Predictive margins                                   Number of obs = 1,678,088
          Model VCE: Robust
          
          Expression: Predicted relative subhazard, predict()
          
          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         |            Delta-method
                         |     Margin   std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
          ---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                      sex |
                   male  |   .4863794   .0227964    21.34   0.000     .4416994    .5310595
                female  |   .3650681   .0167004    21.86   0.000      .332336    .3978003
        
          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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