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  • xtdcce2 command - Interpreting (adjusted) Rsquared

    Hi,
    I am running the following command using xtdcce2:
    Code:
    xtdcce2 d.growth d.l(growth) d.l(0/1)(tau_k tau_h tau_c totalexpenditure gfcfgdp employmentgrowth yearsedugrowth), ///
        lr(l.growth tau_k tau_h tau_c totalexpenditure surplus gfcfgdp employmentgrowth yearsedugrowth l.lngdpph) ///
        p(l.growth tau_k tau_h tau_c totalexpenditure gfcfgdp employmentgrowth yearsedugrowth l.lngdpph) nocross
    This successfully runs, giving the following output:
    Code:
    (Dynamic) Common Correlated Effects Estimator - Pooled Mean Group (CS-ECM)
    
    Panel Variable (i): cno                               Number of obs     =        269
    Time Variable (t): year                               Number of groups  =          7
    
    Degrees of freedom per group:                         Obs per group:    
     without cross-sectional avg. min   = 2                             min =         28
                                  max   = 19                            avg =         39
     with cross-sectional avg.    min   = 2                             max =         45
                                  max   = 19
    Number of                                             F(128, 141)       =      12.54
     cross-sectional lags               none              Prob > F          =       0.00
     variables in mean group regression = 121             R-squared         =       0.08
     variables partialled out           = 7               Adj. R-squared    =      -0.76
                                                          Root MSE          =       0.94
                                                          CD Statistic      =       2.40
                                                             p-value        =     0.0163
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                D.growth|     Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
    --------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
     Short Run Est.    |
    --------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
       Mean Group:      |
               LD.growth| -.0205018   .0636065   -0.32    0.747     -.1451683   .1041647
                 D.tau_k|  .1108507   .0882839    1.26    0.209     -.0621825   .2838839
                LD.tau_k|  .1948902   .0849428    2.29    0.022      .0284055   .3613749
                 D.tau_h|  .0875849   .2884887    0.30    0.761     -.4778426   .6530125
                LD.tau_h| -.1927795    .168709   -1.14    0.253     -.5234431   .1378842
                 D.tau_c| -.2581204    .134282   -1.92    0.055     -.5213084   .0050676
                LD.tau_c| -.4407191   .3083049   -1.43    0.153     -1.044986   .1635475
      D.totalexpenditure| -.2454627   .0994558   -2.47    0.014     -.4403926  -.0505329
     LD.totalexpenditure|  .0133227     .06866    0.19    0.846     -.1212484   .1478939
               D.gfcfgdp|  .6975205   .1899527    3.67    0.000        .32522   1.069821
              LD.gfcfgdp| -.1822181   .1287845   -1.41    0.157      -.434631   .0701948
      D.employmentgrowth|  .4443812   .1218602    3.65    0.000      .2055396   .6832228
     LD.employmentgrowth| -.1041447   .0786641   -1.32    0.186     -.2583236   .0500341
        D.yearsedugrowth| -.0333696    .580152   -0.06    0.954     -1.170447   1.103707
       LD.yearsedugrowth|  -.217793   .4786241   -0.46    0.649     -1.155879   .7202929
    --------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
     Adjust. Term       |
    --------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
       Pooled:          |
                L.growth| -.8697609   .1559673   -5.58    0.000     -1.175451  -.5640706
    --------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
     Long Run Est.      |
    --------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
       Pooled:          |
                   tau_k| -.0985957   .0889259   -1.11    0.268     -.2728872   .0756958
                   tau_h|  .0127507   .2430476    0.05    0.958     -.4636138   .4891151
                   tau_c|  .0103705   .2372296    0.04    0.965      -.454591    .475332
        totalexpenditure|  .0672735   .2347151    0.29    0.774     -.3927596   .5273066
                 gfcfgdp|  .0540256   .1733502    0.31    0.755     -.2857345   .3937857
        employmentgrowth|  .0536376   .2524265    0.21    0.832     -.4411093   .5483844
          yearsedugrowth|  .1016247   1.317466    0.08    0.939      -2.48056    2.68381
               L.lngdpph| -2.301626   1.324625   -1.74    0.082     -4.897843   .2945914
       Mean Group:      |
                 surplus| -.3378064   .0574441   -5.88    0.000     -.4503947  -.2252181
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pooled Variables: L.growth tau_k tau_h tau_c totalexpenditure gfcfgdp employmentgrowth yearsedugrowth L.lngdpph
    Mean Group Variables: LD.growth D.tau_k LD.tau_k D.tau_h LD.tau_h D.tau_c LD.tau_c D.totalexpenditure LD.totalexpenditure D.gfcfgdp LD.gfcfgdp D.employmentgrowth LD.empl
    > oymentgrowth D.yearsedugrowth LD.yearsedugrowth
    Long Run Variables: tau_k tau_h tau_c totalexpenditure gfcfgdp employmentgrowth yearsedugrowth L.lngdpph surplus
    Cointegration variable(s): L.growth
    Heterogenous constant partialled out.
    As can be seen above, the Rsquared is very low and the adjusted is actually negative. What is, if any, an appropriate interpretation of these Rsquared terms here?
    Thanks!

  • #2
    Small correction - surplus is also meant to be pooled, but running this regression changes little conceptually about my question. Rsquared remains very low and adjusted Rsquared remains negative.

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