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  • Lag selection for Granger Causality

    Hello.

    I want to know the causality between GDP and Employment.( I have two time series data: GDP and employment)

    I am using varsoc command and my stata command is:

    1. varsoc gdp employment
    2. varsoc employment gdp

    So my question is that, is there any need to find a optimal lag length after using varsoc gdp employment?

    Can it be different lags for each direction?

    For example: Lag 2 for GDP and employment
    Lag 3 for employment and GDP


    My second question is that:

    When I use the 'forvalues' command, it gives a different lag length with each variable.

    For example, Y → X (lag 2, based on AIC), X → Y (lag 3).

    In my understanding, with each direction(Y → X, X →Y), the lag length should be the same.

    Is it okay to use the command of 'varsoc'? Is it different than the command of 'forvalues?

    Thanks a lot.
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