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  • Fixed effects (individual and time), interacting FEs, and Time Trends

    Hi everyone!

    I have panel data of the form:
    Country Continent Year agprod drought
    ABW LAC 1972 13413513 0
    ABW LAC 1973 15213523 1
    ABW LAC 1974 13513513 1
    ADO WEOFF 1972 353413 0
    ADO WEOFF 1973 234233 0
    I am trying to pinpoint the effects of drought on agricultural production and have a model of the form:
    Click image for larger version

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    I am fine with the country FEs and the year FEs which I use to account for omitted variable bias. As such, I eliminate bias from time-varying unobservables that are constant across countries as well as eliminate bias due to factors that differ across countries but are constant over time (?).

    Now, my issues:

    1) I have been advised to include continent*year FEs instead of simple year FEs and I am struggling with the intuition behind this. I understand that I am in effect disaggregating the effects of year into separate year dummies for each continent and thus assuming that the time-varying unobvservables vary differently according to different continents... But I still am shaky about my understanding, if someone could clarify this and maybe have a pertinent example of the effects that are controlled for.

    I've included these continent*year effects using reghdfe ln_agprod drought, absorb(country continent#year). Is that correct?

    2) I would like to take into account time trends to see if I get different results. I am not interested in the coefficients for the trends but this would only be used to see the impact on the coefficient of drought. First of all, I assume I cannot include time fixed effects if I am including a time trend in my model (?). What is the difference between having time fixed effects and a time trend? I assume the trend incorporates the year effects?
    I was advised to include country-specific time trends. So in my mind, I would include these country-specific time trends as well as country FEs but not year FEs.
    Any idea of how I can do so in Stata? Would reghdfe ln_agprod drought, absorb(i.country##c.year) do the trick? or reg agprod spei i.country##c.year ?

    Also has a clear way to explain the intuition between a model with 1) country fixed effects and year fixed effects only, 2) country fixed effects and continent*year fixed effects, and 3) country fixed effects and country-specific time trends? I feel a bit shaky about my understanding and would like to feel confident about what variation I am taking account for in each case.

    Many many thanks in advance!







  • #2
    Regarding the appropriate syntax, I am sure Mr. Correia (author of reghdfe command) will tell you about the right method.

    About the intuition behind continent # year fixed-effects, you are allowing time shocks to be continent specific. Take the COVID crisis for instance, which you could model using a time dummy assuming the value of 1 for the year 2020. By interacting this dummy with the dummy for continent, you are allowing COVID19 to have a different effect on your dependent variable according to the continent the observation belongs to. The intuition is that time shocks will not affect all units in the same manner. You are effectively modelling heterogeneity, and I would recommend doing it.

    The only problem is that you'll create quite a few variables by doing that, which may increase computing time.

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