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  • Interpreting panel cointegration test using Kao test

    Dear forum users

    I have two models for which I am testing cointegration using kao test as follows. Can I say model two is not cointegrated while model two is because of the MDF and ADF ?

    xtcointtest kao ROA CATETA LOGSIZETA MENIETA MESCNIE LIQLND AQLNTA GDPG LEVDTEQ HHILN
    Kao test for cointegration
    Ho: No cointegration Number of panels 37
    Ha: All panels are cointegrated Number of periods 8
    Cointegrating vector: Same
    Panel means: Included Kernel: Bartlett
    Time trend: Not included Lags: 1.24 (Newey-West)
    AR parameter: Same Augmented lags: 1
    Statistic p-value
    Modified Dickey-Fuller t -6.4144 0
    Dickey-Fuller t -9.5496 0
    Augmented Dickey-Fuller t -3.6762 0.0001
    Unadjusted modified Dickey-Fuller t -7.7288 0
    Unadjusted Dickey-Fuller t -9.9544 0

    model 2
    xtcointtest kao ROA LOGSIZEIN LEVTLTA MENIETA NIMLN LIQLND AQLNTA GDPG HHILN
    Kao test for cointegration
    --------------------------
    Ho: No cointegration Number of panels 37
    Ha: All panels are cointegrated Number of periods 8
    Cointegrating vector: Same
    Panel means: Included Kernel: Bartlett
    Time trend: Not included Lags: 1.78 (Newey-West)
    AR parameter: Same Augmented lags: 1
    Statistic p-value
    Modified Dickey-Fuller t -0.6945 0.2437
    Dickey-Fuller t -6.0225 0
    Augmented Dickey-Fuller t 0.1705 0.4323
    Unadjusted modified Dickey-Fuller t -8.1348 0
    Unadjusted Dickey-Fuller t -10.3341 0


  • #2
    Hello, I have questions about Kao cointegration test too. Therefore, I posted here following the same topic.
    First, I tested this with all my variable:

    Code:
    Kao test for cointegration
    --------------------------
    H0: No cointegration                        Number of panels       =      8
    Ha: All panels are cointegrated             Number of periods      =     30
    
    Cointegrating vector: Same
    Panel means:          Included              Kernel:           Bartlett
    Time trend:           Not included          Lags:             2.62 (Newey–West)
    AR parameter:         Same                  Augmented lags:   1 (BIC)
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Statistic         p-value
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Modified Dickey–Fuller t                          .               .
     Dickey–Fuller t                                   .               .
     Augmented Dickey–Fuller t                         .               .
     Unadjusted modified Dickey–Fuller t        -22.7420          0.0000
     Unadjusted Dickey–Fuller t                 -12.6351          0.0000
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    I dont understand why it does not shows result for MDF, DF and ADF. Then I tried replacing my variable one by one and get this:

    Code:
    Kao test for cointegration
    --------------------------
    H0: No cointegration                        Number of panels       =      8
    Ha: All panels are cointegrated             Number of periods      =     30
    
    Cointegrating vector: Same
    Panel means:          Included              Kernel:           Bartlett
    Time trend:           Not included          Lags:             2.25 (Newey–West)
    AR parameter:         Same                  Augmented lags:   1 (AIC)
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                Statistic         p-value
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Modified Dickey–Fuller t                   -18.4876          0.0000
     Dickey–Fuller t                            -12.3187          0.0000
     Augmented Dickey–Fuller t                   -9.2722          0.0000
     Unadjusted modified Dickey–Fuller t        -22.7654          0.0000
     Unadjusted Dickey–Fuller t                 -12.6060          0.0000
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Results shows that I could reject my null hypothesis. Question is, why it doesn't work for all variables? I did unit-root test before and confirmed they all cointegrated in level and first difference. Anyone who can help me explain this situation and what should I do?
    Thank you!

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