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  • Factual and Counterfactual terminology

    Hello Statalist,

    I have a question that I hope is appropriate: I am looking for synonyms to the words "factual" and "counterfactual" that would be more easily understood by a biomedical audience but more accurate that "observed" and "expected".

    E.g. I run the following

    Code:
    reg y x z
    
    *generate factual estimate
    predict f_y 
    
    
    *generate counterfactual estimate
    replace x = 0 
    
    predict cf_y
    Here, using "observed" in place of "factual" is not quite correct because observed is only the true value of y. Whereas f_y is adjusted for z.



    Are there more easily understood but still technically correct terms here?



    Thanks!


    I am using Stata SE x64 ver 13.1 with Win 7 x64 and with 8 GB of ram.

  • #2
    Well, I think that a biomedical audience will have no difficulty understanding the words factual and counterfactual. The context in which you are using them is perhaps not the one most familiar to them. But I think if you just explain them something like this:
    I call the "factual" estimate of y, the value of y predicted by our model when the actual value of x is used. When we substitute a different value for x, namely 0, and do the same calculations, the resulting estimate I will call "counterfactual."
    I think if you say that before you proceed with other mentions of those words, everything will be clear. I cannot think of any simpler terminology to describe them. I would definitely not use the term "observed" to refer to anything other than the actually observed value of y, not any kind of model estimate.

    Comment


    • #3
      Karl:
      as an aside to Clyde's helpful explanation, for another definition of countefactual, see -teffects intro- in Stata .pdf manual.
      Kind regards,
      Carlo
      (Stata 19.0)

      Comment


      • #4
        Thank you both for your helpful advice!
        I am using Stata SE x64 ver 13.1 with Win 7 x64 and with 8 GB of ram.

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