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  • Probit regression failed completely determination and back up issue

    I am encountering 2 issues when running probit regression on a data sample of corporate bonds. Essentially the data consist; dummy for downgraded bond, lagged short interest, lagged market cap and lagged stock return and a few more. I ran into 2 question. First there shows a note in the regression summary saying 42 failures. I searched for the official explanation but I don't think they are applicable.

    Iteration 0: log likelihood = -45979.692
    Iteration 1: log likelihood = -44061.666
    Iteration 2: log likelihood = -43975.815
    Iteration 3: log likelihood = -43975.59
    Iteration 4: log likelihood = -43975.59

    Probit regression Number of obs = 347,531
    LR chi2(3) = 4008.20
    Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
    Log likelihood = -43975.59 Pseudo R2 = 0.0436

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    dummy_down | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
    -------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    lag_ab_ss | 5.550842 .136764 40.59 0.000 5.282789 5.818895
    lag_D_TA | -.0777935 .0274189 -2.84 0.005 -.1315336 -.0240534
    lag_stock_monthly_return | -1.805196 .037271 -48.43 0.000 -1.878246 -1.732146
    _cons | -1.919995 .0086601 -221.71 0.000 -1.936968 -1.903021
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Note: 42 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

    Another issue is when running the regression, the process kept in generating iterations and showed back up the message.

    Iteration 0: log likelihood = -46667.784
    Iteration 1: log likelihood = -45413.223
    Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45403.731
    Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45403.724
    Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45403.724
    Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 6: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 7: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 8: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 9: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 10: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 11: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 12: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 13: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)
    Iteration 14: log likelihood = -45403.724 (backed up)

    below is a sample of my variable

    Code:
    * Example generated by -dataex-. To install: ssc install dataex
    clear
    input float lag_stock_monthly_return
       .04285286
     -.032464337
       .04285286
               .
     -.034371644
               .
     -.032464337
        .0700392
               .
    
      -.15242745
    -.0008014426
    end
    Thanks a lot!


  • #2
    Oh, i missed one more thing. I came across a research paper stated: " estimated a probit model including year fixed effect". I couldnt find a related command and some suggested probit model cannot have time dummies or time fixed effect.

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