Hi there new to the forum, I am investigating the effect of derivative use on firm value (with control variables added) on unbalanced panel data from 2015-2016
I have run 3 regression models, 1 simple OLS, and then the same model with industry dummies and then a firm-fixed effects model.
I was curious and tried my models again introducing a time dummy (1 for 2015, 0 for 2016), the time dummy were quite insignificant in each model. I performed a 2 tail test after each regression for the time dummy and one again it confirmed it wasn’t significant, so decided not to use them Is this correct?
Here are the various outputs:
OLS without time dummy:
ource | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(11, 527) = 174.31
Model | 131.403067 11 11.9457334 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 36.1158244 527 .068530976 R-squared = 0.7844
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.7799
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .26178
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0175601 .0081555 -2.15 0.032 -.0335814 -.0015388
FXDerivatives10 | .0446019 .0267908 1.66 0.097 -.008028 .0972319
IRDerivatives10 | -.038192 .0283619 -1.35 0.179 -.0939083 .0175243
bookleverage_w1 | .3014549 .0633091 4.76 0.000 .1770857 .4258241
roa | .0501033 .0035524 14.10 0.000 .0431247 .0570818
z1 | .069638 .0044332 15.71 0.000 .060929 .078347
cratio_w1 | -.0920026 .0109629 -8.39 0.000 -.113539 -.0704662
rnd_rev | .0126128 .0022501 5.61 0.000 .0081925 .0170331
cash_to_totalassets | .2368669 .1432397 1.65 0.099 -.044524 .5182578
div_yield | -.0368795 .003593 -10.26 0.000 -.043938 -.0298211
roce_w1 | .0010044 .0004492 2.24 0.026 .0001219 .001887
_cons | .2019534 .0665961 3.03 0.003 .071127 .3327797
OLS with time dummy:
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(12, 526) = 159.49
Model | 131.403718 12 10.9503098 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 36.1151742 526 .068660027 R-squared = 0.7844
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.7795
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .26203
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0175976 .0081723 -2.15 0.032 -.033652 -.0015433
FXDerivatives10 | .0446179 .0268166 1.66 0.097 -.0080628 .0972986
IRDerivatives10 | -.0381434 .028393 -1.34 0.180 -.093921 .0176342
bookleverage_w1 | .3015757 .0633808 4.76 0.000 .177065 .4260863
roa1 | .0501024 .0035557 14.09 0.000 .0431172 .0570875
z1 | .0696504 .0044393 15.69 0.000 .0609296 .0783713
cratio_w1 | -.0919885 .0109742 -8.38 0.000 -.1135471 -.0704299
rnd_rev | .0126132 .0022522 5.60 0.000 .0081887 .0170377
cash_to_totalassets | .236594 .1434019 1.65 0.100 -.0451168 .5183048
div_yield | -.0368644 .0035998 -10.24 0.000 -.0439361 -.0297927
roce_w1 | .0010059 .0004499 2.24 0.026 .000122 .0018898
year2015 | -.0022064 .0226742 -0.10 0.923 -.0467496 .0423367
_cons | .2031527 .0677885 3.00 0.003 .0699832 .3363221
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Industry model without time dummy:
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(58, 480) = 43.84
Model | 140.917485 58 2.4296118 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 26.6014073 480 .055419598 R-squared = 0.8412
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.8220
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .23541
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0152283 .0086275 -1.77 0.078 -.0321806 .001724
FXDerivatives10 | .0071845 .0285817 0.25 0.802 -.0489762 .0633452
IRDerivatives10 | -.0116745 .0278513 -0.42 0.675 -.0664002 .0430511
bookleverage_w1 | .175635 .0639462 2.75 0.006 .049986 .301284
roa . | .0476971 .0035201 13.55 0.000 .0407804 .0546137
z1 . | .063346 .0042326 14.97 0.000 .0550293 .0716627
cratio_w1 | -.0949652 .0115556 -8.22 0.000 -.117671 -.0722594
rnd_rev | .0065982 .002436 2.71 0.007 .0018116 .0113849
cash_to_totalassets | .2114229 .141328 1.50 0.135 -.0662752 .489121
div_yield | -.0318108 .0034352 -9.26 0.000 -.0385607 -.0250609
roce_w1 | .0007736 .0004437 1.74 0.082 -.0000983 .0016454
_cons | -.2267953 .1803996 -1.26 0.209 -.5812658 .1276753
industry model with time dummy:
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(59, 479) = 43.01
Model | 140.917686 59 2.38843536 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 26.6012055 479 .055534876 R-squared = 0.8412
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.8216
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .23566
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firmvalue | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0151998 .0086494 -1.76 0.079 -.0321952 .0017955
FXDerivatives10 | .0071648 .0286133 0.25 0.802 -.0490583 .0633878
IRDerivatives10 | -.011699 .0278832 -0.42 0.675 -.0664875 .0430896
bookleverage_w1 | .1755661 .0640229 2.74 0.006 .0497657 .3013665
roa | .0476972 .0035237 13.54 0.000 .0407733 .0546211
z1 . | .063337 .0042396 14.94 0.000 .0550064 .0716675
cratio_w1 | -.0949726 .0115682 -8.21 0.000 -.1177034 -.0722419
rnd_rev | .006597 .0024387 2.71 0.007 .0018052 .0113888
cash_to_totalassets | .211593 .1415031 1.50 0.135 -.0664505 .4896365
div_yield | -.0318182 .003441 -9.25 0.000 -.0385795 -.025057
roce_w1 | .0007726 .0004445 1.74 0.083 -.0001008 .0016459
year2015 | .0012352 .0204929 0.06 0.952 -.039032 .0415023
_cons | -.2275501 .1810209 -1.26 0.209 -.5832433 .1281431
firm fixed effects model without time dummy:
Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 539
Group variable: firmid Number of groups = 282
R-sq: Obs per group:
within = 0.3170 min = 1
between = 0.2210 avg = 1.9
overall = 0.2319 max = 2
F(11,246) = 10.38
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.6013 Prob > F = 0.0000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value . | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.3381877 .0604746 -5.59 0.000 -.4573017 -.2190736
FXDerivatives10 | .0952812 .0743215 1.28 0.201 -.0511064 .2416688
IRDerivatives10 | -.1214566 .0744892 -1.63 0.104 -.2681747 .0252614
bookleverage_w1 | .1692325 .1216745 1.39 0.166 -.0704241 .4088892
roa . | .020826 .0056757 3.67 0.000 .0096468 .0320051
z1 | .007085 .0148235 0.48 0.633 -.0221122 .0362821
cratio_w1 | -.0695064 .0227655 -3.05 0.003 -.1143466 -.0246663
rnd_rev | -.0109449 .0082216 -1.33 0.184 -.0271386 .0052488
cash_to_totalassets | .347916 .2082939 1.67 0.096 -.062351 .758183
div_yield | -.0214717 .0032936 -6.52 0.000 -.0279589 -.0149845
roce_w1 | .0003598 .0004738 0.76 0.448 -.0005734 .0012931
_cons | 2.916311 .4469079 6.53 0.000 2.036057 3.796565
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma_u | .61284951
sigma_e | .12766146
rho | .95841236 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test that all u_i=0: F(281, 246) = 7.01 Prob > F = 0.0000
.
Firm fixed effects with time dummy:
Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 539
Group variable: firmid Number of groups = 282
R-sq: Obs per group:
within = 0.3234 min = 1
between = 0.2051 avg = 1.9
overall = 0.2155 max = 2
F(12,245) = 9.76
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.6938 Prob > F = 0.0000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lntobinsq | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.4007886 .0731027 -5.48 0.000 -.5447786 -.2567987
FXDerivatives10 | .1024007 .074275 1.38 0.169 -.0438983 .2486997
IRDerivatives10 | -.1037169 .07521 -1.38 0.169 -.2518575 .0444237
bookleverage_w1 | .207787 .1239924 1.68 0.095 -.0364401 .4520141
roa . | .0210163 .0056622 3.71 0.000 .0098636 .0321691
z1 . | .009197 .0148501 0.62 0.536 -.0200532 .0384471
cratio_w1 | -.0691649 .0227068 -3.05 0.003 -.1138904 -.0244394
rnd_rev | -.0119345 .008226 -1.45 0.148 -.0281371 .0042681
cash_to_totalassets | .3159089 .2088175 1.51 0.132 -.0953977 .7272156
div_yield | -.0212811 .0032873 -6.47 0.000 -.0277562 -.0148061
roce_w1 | .0004484 .0004762 0.94 0.347 -.0004894 .0013863
year2015 | -.0223946 .0147759 -1.52 0.131 -.0514986 .0067093
_cons | 3.333809 .523984 6.36 0.000 2.301721 4.365897
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma_u | .68593601
sigma_e | .12732622
rho | .9666914 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test that all u_i=0: F(281, 245) = 7.06 Prob > F = 0.0000
.
.
Im presuming this is an indication that theres next to no time-fixed effects element as its only over a 2 year period.
Do keep or drop the time dummies is what im asking?
any help would be appreciated.
Thanks
I have run 3 regression models, 1 simple OLS, and then the same model with industry dummies and then a firm-fixed effects model.
I was curious and tried my models again introducing a time dummy (1 for 2015, 0 for 2016), the time dummy were quite insignificant in each model. I performed a 2 tail test after each regression for the time dummy and one again it confirmed it wasn’t significant, so decided not to use them Is this correct?
Here are the various outputs:
OLS without time dummy:
ource | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(11, 527) = 174.31
Model | 131.403067 11 11.9457334 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 36.1158244 527 .068530976 R-squared = 0.7844
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.7799
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .26178
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0175601 .0081555 -2.15 0.032 -.0335814 -.0015388
FXDerivatives10 | .0446019 .0267908 1.66 0.097 -.008028 .0972319
IRDerivatives10 | -.038192 .0283619 -1.35 0.179 -.0939083 .0175243
bookleverage_w1 | .3014549 .0633091 4.76 0.000 .1770857 .4258241
roa | .0501033 .0035524 14.10 0.000 .0431247 .0570818
z1 | .069638 .0044332 15.71 0.000 .060929 .078347
cratio_w1 | -.0920026 .0109629 -8.39 0.000 -.113539 -.0704662
rnd_rev | .0126128 .0022501 5.61 0.000 .0081925 .0170331
cash_to_totalassets | .2368669 .1432397 1.65 0.099 -.044524 .5182578
div_yield | -.0368795 .003593 -10.26 0.000 -.043938 -.0298211
roce_w1 | .0010044 .0004492 2.24 0.026 .0001219 .001887
_cons | .2019534 .0665961 3.03 0.003 .071127 .3327797
OLS with time dummy:
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(12, 526) = 159.49
Model | 131.403718 12 10.9503098 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 36.1151742 526 .068660027 R-squared = 0.7844
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.7795
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .26203
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0175976 .0081723 -2.15 0.032 -.033652 -.0015433
FXDerivatives10 | .0446179 .0268166 1.66 0.097 -.0080628 .0972986
IRDerivatives10 | -.0381434 .028393 -1.34 0.180 -.093921 .0176342
bookleverage_w1 | .3015757 .0633808 4.76 0.000 .177065 .4260863
roa1 | .0501024 .0035557 14.09 0.000 .0431172 .0570875
z1 | .0696504 .0044393 15.69 0.000 .0609296 .0783713
cratio_w1 | -.0919885 .0109742 -8.38 0.000 -.1135471 -.0704299
rnd_rev | .0126132 .0022522 5.60 0.000 .0081887 .0170377
cash_to_totalassets | .236594 .1434019 1.65 0.100 -.0451168 .5183048
div_yield | -.0368644 .0035998 -10.24 0.000 -.0439361 -.0297927
roce_w1 | .0010059 .0004499 2.24 0.026 .000122 .0018898
year2015 | -.0022064 .0226742 -0.10 0.923 -.0467496 .0423367
_cons | .2031527 .0677885 3.00 0.003 .0699832 .3363221
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Industry model without time dummy:
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(58, 480) = 43.84
Model | 140.917485 58 2.4296118 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 26.6014073 480 .055419598 R-squared = 0.8412
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.8220
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .23541
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0152283 .0086275 -1.77 0.078 -.0321806 .001724
FXDerivatives10 | .0071845 .0285817 0.25 0.802 -.0489762 .0633452
IRDerivatives10 | -.0116745 .0278513 -0.42 0.675 -.0664002 .0430511
bookleverage_w1 | .175635 .0639462 2.75 0.006 .049986 .301284
roa . | .0476971 .0035201 13.55 0.000 .0407804 .0546137
z1 . | .063346 .0042326 14.97 0.000 .0550293 .0716627
cratio_w1 | -.0949652 .0115556 -8.22 0.000 -.117671 -.0722594
rnd_rev | .0065982 .002436 2.71 0.007 .0018116 .0113849
cash_to_totalassets | .2114229 .141328 1.50 0.135 -.0662752 .489121
div_yield | -.0318108 .0034352 -9.26 0.000 -.0385607 -.0250609
roce_w1 | .0007736 .0004437 1.74 0.082 -.0000983 .0016454
_cons | -.2267953 .1803996 -1.26 0.209 -.5812658 .1276753
industry model with time dummy:
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 539
-------------+---------------------------------- F(59, 479) = 43.01
Model | 140.917686 59 2.38843536 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 26.6012055 479 .055534876 R-squared = 0.8412
-------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.8216
Total | 167.518892 538 .311373405 Root MSE = .23566
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firmvalue | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.0151998 .0086494 -1.76 0.079 -.0321952 .0017955
FXDerivatives10 | .0071648 .0286133 0.25 0.802 -.0490583 .0633878
IRDerivatives10 | -.011699 .0278832 -0.42 0.675 -.0664875 .0430896
bookleverage_w1 | .1755661 .0640229 2.74 0.006 .0497657 .3013665
roa | .0476972 .0035237 13.54 0.000 .0407733 .0546211
z1 . | .063337 .0042396 14.94 0.000 .0550064 .0716675
cratio_w1 | -.0949726 .0115682 -8.21 0.000 -.1177034 -.0722419
rnd_rev | .006597 .0024387 2.71 0.007 .0018052 .0113888
cash_to_totalassets | .211593 .1415031 1.50 0.135 -.0664505 .4896365
div_yield | -.0318182 .003441 -9.25 0.000 -.0385795 -.025057
roce_w1 | .0007726 .0004445 1.74 0.083 -.0001008 .0016459
year2015 | .0012352 .0204929 0.06 0.952 -.039032 .0415023
_cons | -.2275501 .1810209 -1.26 0.209 -.5832433 .1281431
firm fixed effects model without time dummy:
Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 539
Group variable: firmid Number of groups = 282
R-sq: Obs per group:
within = 0.3170 min = 1
between = 0.2210 avg = 1.9
overall = 0.2319 max = 2
F(11,246) = 10.38
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.6013 Prob > F = 0.0000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firm value . | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.3381877 .0604746 -5.59 0.000 -.4573017 -.2190736
FXDerivatives10 | .0952812 .0743215 1.28 0.201 -.0511064 .2416688
IRDerivatives10 | -.1214566 .0744892 -1.63 0.104 -.2681747 .0252614
bookleverage_w1 | .1692325 .1216745 1.39 0.166 -.0704241 .4088892
roa . | .020826 .0056757 3.67 0.000 .0096468 .0320051
z1 | .007085 .0148235 0.48 0.633 -.0221122 .0362821
cratio_w1 | -.0695064 .0227655 -3.05 0.003 -.1143466 -.0246663
rnd_rev | -.0109449 .0082216 -1.33 0.184 -.0271386 .0052488
cash_to_totalassets | .347916 .2082939 1.67 0.096 -.062351 .758183
div_yield | -.0214717 .0032936 -6.52 0.000 -.0279589 -.0149845
roce_w1 | .0003598 .0004738 0.76 0.448 -.0005734 .0012931
_cons | 2.916311 .4469079 6.53 0.000 2.036057 3.796565
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma_u | .61284951
sigma_e | .12766146
rho | .95841236 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test that all u_i=0: F(281, 246) = 7.01 Prob > F = 0.0000
.
Firm fixed effects with time dummy:
Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 539
Group variable: firmid Number of groups = 282
R-sq: Obs per group:
within = 0.3234 min = 1
between = 0.2051 avg = 1.9
overall = 0.2155 max = 2
F(12,245) = 9.76
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.6938 Prob > F = 0.0000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lntobinsq | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnassets | -.4007886 .0731027 -5.48 0.000 -.5447786 -.2567987
FXDerivatives10 | .1024007 .074275 1.38 0.169 -.0438983 .2486997
IRDerivatives10 | -.1037169 .07521 -1.38 0.169 -.2518575 .0444237
bookleverage_w1 | .207787 .1239924 1.68 0.095 -.0364401 .4520141
roa . | .0210163 .0056622 3.71 0.000 .0098636 .0321691
z1 . | .009197 .0148501 0.62 0.536 -.0200532 .0384471
cratio_w1 | -.0691649 .0227068 -3.05 0.003 -.1138904 -.0244394
rnd_rev | -.0119345 .008226 -1.45 0.148 -.0281371 .0042681
cash_to_totalassets | .3159089 .2088175 1.51 0.132 -.0953977 .7272156
div_yield | -.0212811 .0032873 -6.47 0.000 -.0277562 -.0148061
roce_w1 | .0004484 .0004762 0.94 0.347 -.0004894 .0013863
year2015 | -.0223946 .0147759 -1.52 0.131 -.0514986 .0067093
_cons | 3.333809 .523984 6.36 0.000 2.301721 4.365897
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sigma_u | .68593601
sigma_e | .12732622
rho | .9666914 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
F test that all u_i=0: F(281, 245) = 7.06 Prob > F = 0.0000
.
.
Im presuming this is an indication that theres next to no time-fixed effects element as its only over a 2 year period.
Do keep or drop the time dummies is what im asking?
any help would be appreciated.
Thanks
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