I am running a regression for the outcomes of English Premier League football matches measured in terms of the number of points achieved (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss.)
Each match contributes two observations (one for the home team and one for the away team).
I am really struggling to determine which type of regression to use - I have considered the following:
Any thoughts at all would be greatly appreciated.
Each match contributes two observations (one for the home team and one for the away team).
I am really struggling to determine which type of regression to use - I have considered the following:
- Ordered logistic regression - the problem with this is that it treats the gap between win and draw as equal to the gap between draw and loss (it does not account for the cardinal nature of the dependent variable).
- Negative binomial/poisson regression - the problem with this is that it assumes the possibility that 2 points or 4 points could be scored which is impossible in reality.
- Multinomial logistic regression - this seems the only valid approach but has the problem that it is more difficult to interpret as it results in two sets of coefficients (draw vs loss and win vs loss).
Any thoughts at all would be greatly appreciated.
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