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  • Recursive 1-step ahead forecasting in a VAR model

    Hi,

    I am currently working to generate a 1-step ahead forecast from recursively estimating a Vector Autoregression Model, similar to a real-time forecast. At present, I am building this using the 'forvalues' command, and storing my results. My questions are as follows:

    1. In 'forecast compute', is there any way for me to suppress the initial datapoint in the 1-step ahead forecast? By this, I mean that the command generates forecasts that replicate data from the current time period, which I would like to exclude.
    2. Having done so, how should I go about, in the loop, saving the results to a time series containing all the 1-step ahead forecasts? I've tried the replace command, but that would delete the previous 1-step ahead forecasts.

    My code at the moment is rather simple, and is as follows:

    forvalues p = 150(1)225 {
    var x in 1/`p', lags(1/14)
    fcast compute fin8_, nose replace
    }


    Thanks!
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