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  • Endogeneity and Low DF in Annual FDI-GVC Model for Egypt: ARDL vs. VAR Alternatives

    I am an undergraduate student working on an empirical project about the effect of FDI inflows on GVC integration in Egypt, using annual data from 1995–2023 (29 observations). My dependent variable is a GVC participation index, and I have around 6 control variables.

    I initially planned to estimate an ARDL model, but I realized that endogeneity may be an issue. Because of that, I considered using a VARX model, but the sample size is quite small, and adding several controls will quickly reduce the degrees of freedom.

    Given that:
    • I have annual data with a small sample (≈29 observations)
    • I have several control variables
    • There may be reverse causality between FDI and GVC participation
    • My econometrics level is undergraduate
    What can i do?
    Last edited by Omar Akram; 28 Nov 2025, 06:44.
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